Marriage equality supporters have recently stated that they plan to continue the conversation on the issue as the 2013 legislative session opens and will work toward moving a bill in the second half of the session.
Some political watchers, such as University of Minnesota politics professor Larry Jacobs have already declared the bill dead (Jacobs said it doesn’t have a “prayers chance” in passing). Others, including Sen. John Marty, are optimistic that equality for same-sex couples can be a reality in Minnesota this year.
So, do equality proponents have the votes?
The quick answer is maybe. But there are still a lot of unknowns.
According to a very unscientific analysis by TheColu.mn, it’s unclear whether there are enough votes in the Minnesota House or Senate to pass a bill legalizing gay marriage in 2013.
You can compare our analysis to the great ones done recently by Tony Petrangelo at Left.mn. He looked at the marriage amendment vote for Senators and House members.
Left.mn got roughly the same results as TheColu.mn using slightly different methodology. It’s going to be very close, especially in the Senate.
TheColu.mn looked at several factors in arriving at a category for each member of the House. We looked at voting records, public statements, and interest groups scorecards. These are somewhat arbitrary categorizations and are subject to change when new information is acquired.
Past authorship for a constitutional amendment puts a legislators in the “solid no” column. Voting for the amendment is a “likely no” on a marriage equality bill.
Past support for a marriage equality bill puts those legislators in the “solid yes” column on marriage equality.
For legislators who voted against the amendment in 2011, that does not mean they will necessarily support a marriage equality bill. Those members required another factor: statements to the news media, floor speeches, or campaign language that indicated some support for same-sex couples. Also, offering bills for domestic partnerships or civil unions moved those member one notch toward the yes column. Some members voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment before voting against it in 2011. Those legislators were docked a point for those votes.
For several legislators, there isn’t enough publicly available information to make an educated guess, so they are listed as unknown. TheColu.mn will be working to get information from those legislators during the upcoming session (If you have information about a Senator or Representative, please let us know!)
In the Senate, 29 were at least lean yes, 29 were at least lean no, and 9 were tossups.
Solid yes: BOBBY JOE CHAMPION D, SCOTT DIBBLE D, JEFF HAYDEN D, PATRICIA TORRES RAY D, SANDY PAPPAS D, JOHN MARTY D, and FOUNG HAWJ D
Likely yes: ROGER J. REINERT D, KATHY SHERAN D, CHRIS EATON D, BARB GOODWIN D, RON LATZ D, MELISA FRANZEN D, SUSAN KENT D, KATIE SIEBEN D, KARI DZIEDZIC D, DICK COHEN D and VICKI JENSEN D.
Lean yes: TOM BAKK D, TOM SAXHAUG D, TONY LOUREY D, JOHN HOFFMAN D, CHARLES “CHUCK” WIGER D, TERRI BONOFF D, ANN H. REST D, MELISSA HALVORSON WIKLUND D, JIM CARLSON D, JAMES METZEN D and GREG CLAUSEN D.
Solid no: BILL INGEBRIGTSEN R, PAUL GAZELKA R, DAVE BROWN R, SCOTT J. NEWMAN R, MARY KIFFMEYER R, SEAN NIENOW R, DAVID OSMEK R, WARREN LIMMER R, DAVID HANN R, DAN HALL R and DAVE THOMPSON R
Likely no: LEROY STUMPF D, CARRIE RUUD R, TORREY WESTROM R, MICHELLE FISCHBACH R, JOHN PEDERSON R, GARY DAHMS, LYLE KOENEN D, BILL WEBER R, JULIE ANN ROSEN, DAVID H. SENJEM R, CARLA NELSON R, JEREMY MILLER R, BRUCE ANDERSON R, MICHELLE BENSON R, BRANDEN PETERSEN R and ROGER CHAMBERLAIN R
Lean no: JULIANNE ORTMAN R and ERIC PRATT R (Though she voted for the amendment, Ortman’s past statements to the Log Cabin Republicans merit watching her this session).
Tossup: ROD SKOE D, KENT EKEN D, DAVID J. TOMASSONI D, KEVIN L. DAHLE D, MATT SCHMIT D, DAN SPARKS D, ALICE M. JOHNSON D, KARIN HOUSLEY R and BEV SCALZE D (most have responded to surveys indicating that they opposed the amendment, but none have made their stance on the issue of marriage equality public).
In the House, 50 members were assessed as at least lean yes, 56 were at least lean no, 14 were tossups (could go either way), and for 14, we didn’t have enough information to make a guess.
Solid yes: TINA LIEBLING D, CAROLYN LAINE D, BARB YARUSSO D, MIKE FREIBERG D, RYAN WINKLER D, STEVE SIMON D, LINDA SLOCUM D, RAYMOND DEHN D, DIANE LOEFFLER D, PHYLLIS KAHN D, FRANK HORNSTEIN D, KAREN CLARK D, SUSAN ALLEN D, JIM DAVNIE D, JEAN WAGENIUS D, ERIN MURPHY D, MICHAEL PAYMAR D, RENA MORAN D, CARLOS MARIANI D, ALICE HAUSMAN D, JOHN LESCH D and SHELDON JOHNSON D
Likely yes: CARLY MELIN D, ERIK SIMONSON D, “ZACH” DORHOLT D, PETER FISCHER D, LAURIE HALVERSON D, JOE MULLERY D
PAUL THISSEN D, TIM MAHONEY D and DAN SCHOEN D
Lean yes: Roger Erickson D, John Persell D, Jason Metsa D, Thomas Huntley D, MIKE SUNDIN D, TIM FAUST D, KATHY BRYNAERT D, DAVID BLY D, MELISSA HORTMAN D, CONNIE BERNARDY D, JASON “IKE” ISAACSON D, LEON M. LILLIE D, JOHN H. BENSON D, LYNDON R. CARLSON D, RON ERHARDT D, PAUL ROSENTHAL D, RICK HANSEN D and JOANN WARD D
Solid no: STEVE GOTTWALT R, CHRIS SWEDZINSKI R, GLENN GRUENHAGEN R, STEVE DRAZKOWSKI R, MIKE BENSON R, NICK ZERWAS R, KURT DAUDT R, CINDY PUGH R, KURT ZELLERS R, PEGGY SCOTT R, MATT DEAN R, BOB DETTMER R, and KATHY LOHMER R.
Likely no: JIM ABELER R, DENNY MCNAMARA R, TONY ALBRIGHT R, Dan Fabian R, Debra Kiel R, Steve Green R, BUD NORNES R, mary franson R, MARK ANDERSON R, RON KRESHA R, PAUL ANDERSON R, TIM O’DRISCOLL R, SONDRA ERICKSON R, JIM NEWBERGER R, PAUL TORKELSON R, DEAN URDAHL R, KELBY WOODARD R, JOE SCHOMACKER R, ROD HAMILTON R, BOB GUNTHER R, TONY CORNISH R, JOHN PETERSBURG R, DUANE QUAM R, GREGORY M. DAVIDS R, JOE MCDONALD R, DAVID FITZSIMMONS R, TOM HACKBARTH R, BRIAN JOHNSON R, BOB BARRETT R, JOYCE PEPPIN R, MARK UGLEM R, TIM SANDERS R, LINDA RUNBECK R, SARAH ANDERSON R, ERNIE LEIDIGER R, JOE HOPPE R, JENIFER LOON R, MIKE BEARD R, PAM MYHRA R, TARA MACK R, ANNA WILLS R
MARY LIZ HOLBERG R and PAT GAROFALO R
Lean no: DEBRA HILSTROM R and ANDREA KIEFFER R.
Tossup: DAVID DILL D, MARY MURPHY D, PAUL MARQUART D, JOHN WARD D, JOE RADINOVICH D, TIMOTHY J. KELLY R, PATTI FRITZ D, JEANNE POPPE D, GENE PELOWSKI D, MARION O’NEILL D, JERRY HERTAUS D, ANN LENCZEWSKI D and SANDRA A. MASIN D
Unknown: BEN LIEN D, TOM ANZELC D, JAY MCNAMAR, JEFF HOWE, ANDREW FALK D, MARY SAWATZKY D, KIM NORTON, SHANNON SAVICK, JERRY NEWTON, MICHAEL NELSON, YVONNE SELCER D, JOE ATKINS D and WILL MORGAN D (Also unknown are the replacements for TERRY MORROW D and STEVE GOTTWALT R who both announced retirements on Tuesday0