If the vote on the marriage amendment were held today, it would narrowly fail according to a poll by SurveyUSA on behalf of KSTP. 47 percent plan to vote for the amendment, 39 percent would vote against it and 10 percent would skip the question which is effectively a “no” under Minnesota’s election laws. That means it would fail at only 47 percent in support of the amendment, and a combined 49 percent against.

There were 4 percent who were unsure of which way they would vote. Those voters would be key to both sides considering how close the poll shows the vote. If those voters all moved to support the amendment, it would pass by 1 percent.

According to the poll, men were more likely to vote for it (52 percent) than women (42 percent). More people under age 35 opposed the amendment (44 percent) than supported it (38 percent).

Those over the age of 50 overwhelmingly support it 52 percent to 36 percent.

Though a majority of Democrats oppose it (54 percent) 31 percent are still in support of the amendment as are 22 percent of liberals.

Twin Cities resident reject the amendment by a 2 percent margin (44 percent vs 42 percent), the rest of the state supports it at average of 55 percent compared to 33 percent opposing it.

The results mirrored a Public Policy Polling survey last week which also found the poll struggling to make it past the 50 percent majority requirement for passage. That poll found 48 percent of Minnesotans in support of the amendment and 44 percent against it with 8 percent who weren’t sure.

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